United Kingdom average price
Monthly estimate, February 2021 to June 2026
Feb 2021Jun 2026
Jason Burns Data Lab/ OFFICIAL DATA REPORT 02
UK House Prices: Affordability and Regional Change
House prices joined to earnings and mortgage rates
Average price£272,188United Kingdom · June 2026
Annual change+2.0%year on year
Monthly change+0.1%latest month
Five-year change+12.1%Jun 2021 to Jun 2026
Price by property type
United Kingdom · June 2026
Executive readoutThe fastest growth sits outside the most expensive market.
Price level and price momentum answer different questions. The regional comparison keeps both visible.
+4.7%
North West grew fastest.
London moved -2.5% over the same year.
3.3x
London costs 3.3 times the North East average.
The regional price gap is £388,320.
+12.1%
UK prices rose over five years.
That national figure masks a 7.2 point spread in current annual growth.
Quoted mortgage rate4.81%BoE 2-year fixed, 75% LTV
UK monthly repayment£1,17125% deposit, 25-year term
Affordability versus growth-0.97Pearson r, nine regions
Joined model9English regional records
Affordability proxy versus annual growth
June 2026 HPI average price divided by 2025 median workplace earnings
The dashed line is a simple linear fit. The relationship is descriptive and based on nine observations.
Modelled UK repayment pressure
Average UK price, 25% deposit, 25-year repayment mortgage
This combines each month’s UK HPI average price with the Bank of England’s quoted 75% LTV mortgage rate.
Joined regional model
Sorted by the current proxy, lower to higher
| Region | Median earnings | HPI average | Official 2025 ratio | Current proxy | Annual growth | Modelled payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North East | £34,403 | £165,550 | 5.00x | 4.81x | +4.3% | £712 |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | £35,682 | £207,948 | 6.03x | 5.83x | +3.6% | £895 |
| North West | £37,361 | £219,922 | 5.92x | 5.89x | +4.7% | £946 |
| West Midlands | £37,064 | £234,731 | 6.80x | 6.33x | +3.3% | £1,010 |
| East Midlands | £35,600 | £240,457 | 7.02x | 6.75x | +2.4% | £1,034 |
| South West | £37,195 | £304,562 | 8.33x | 8.19x | +1.9% | £1,310 |
| East of England | £38,597 | £338,707 | 9.02x | 8.78x | +1.1% | £1,457 |
| South East | £39,983 | £380,380 | 9.58x | 9.51x | +0.3% | £1,636 |
| London | £49,692 | £553,870 | 10.61x | 11.15x | -2.5% | £2,383 |
QuestionDoes the most expensive market also have the strongest momentum?
FindingNo. Higher regional price-to-earnings proxies aligned with weaker annual growth in this snapshot.
Pearson r = -0.97 across nine English regions. That is a strong inverse association, not a forecast.
DecisionSeparate price level, growth and affordability in regional market claims.
A single “hot market” label hides three different commercial stories.
English regions ranked by annual change
Latest published estimate, June 2026
North West+4.7%£219,922
North East+4.3%£165,550
Yorkshire and The Humber+3.6%£207,948
West Midlands+3.3%£234,731
East Midlands+2.4%£240,457
South West+1.9%£304,562
East of England+1.1%£338,707
South East+0.3%£380,380
London-2.5%£553,870
InterpretationHigh growth does not mean high price.
North East has the lowest regional average price. North West has the strongest annual growth.
+9.2%
Northern Ireland
Average price £202,487.
+2.3%
Scotland
Average price £195,355.
+1.8%
England
Average price £293,262.
+1.8%
Wales
Average price £213,162.
CASE STUDY
Three official sources, joined around one commercial question.
The model keeps price, income and borrowing cost separate before testing how they move together.
Question
Where is growth strongest once regional earnings and borrowing costs sit beside the headline house price?
Approach
I joined 910 HPI rows to 2025 ONS earnings and 65 Bank of England mortgage-rate observations. The model then calculates regional proxies, repayments and a nine-region correlation.
Commercial use
Estate agents, developers and marketing teams can separate price, momentum and affordability before making a regional claim.
Reproducible workflow
One command rebuilds the snapshot and both download files
01Download
Fetch HPI prices, ONS earnings and the Bank of England quoted-rate series.
02Normalise
Align geography names, monthly dates, annual earnings and missing values.
03Join and model
Calculate proxies, repayments, a trend line and Pearson correlation.
04Test and publish
Run data checks, export JSON and CSV, then refresh through a monthly workflow.
php artisan data-lab:build-uk-house-pricesUK HPIONS earningsBoE ratesMethod and limits
The conditions that change how the numbers should be read
- The snapshot keeps the latest 65 monthly UK HPI rows for the UK, four nations and nine English regions.
- The affordability model joins June 2026 HPI average prices to 2025 ONS median workplace earnings by English region.
- The repayment model applies the Bank of England 75% loan-to-value quoted rate to a 25-year capital repayment mortgage.
- Pearson correlation measures the relationship between the nine regional affordability proxies and annual price growth.
- The latest HPI estimates are provisional and can be revised in later releases.
- The joined proxy mixes an HPI average price with median workplace earnings from a different reference period. It is not an official affordability ratio.
- The quoted mortgage rate is a market average, not a rate available to every borrower. Fees, taxes and insurance are excluded.
- The correlation uses nine regions. It describes this snapshot and does not establish cause or predict future growth.
- Regional averages hide large differences between local authorities, households and property types.
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